By BlockAI
Introduction
Bitcoin and Ethereum price rally has surprised markets in September 2025. Who is involved? Options traders and on-chain analysts. What happened? Bullish bets outnumber bearish ones. When is this unfolding? Now, with expectations for a year-end move. Where does it matter? In global crypto markets, linked to U.S. Fed policy. Why is this rally happening? Traders expect multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. How are markets signaling this view? Options data and probability models show higher odds of big upside.
Options signal
Options markets are pricing more upside than downside. Bitcoin and Ethereum price rally tone comes from skewed put-call ratios. Derive’s research head, Sean Dawson, flagged growing bullish positioning. Traders look at open interest, implied volatility, and delta exposures. That data suggests a year-end push is feasible. For context on ETF-driven inflows, see Bitcoin price rally lifts near $116k as exchange-traded fund inflows surge.
Market drivers
Macro expectations matter. The main catalyst for the Bitcoin and Ethereum price rally is anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Lower rates often boost risk appetite. That lifts crypto allocations and fuels bullish bets. Options traders price probabilities that Ethereum could top $5,000 and Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by year-end. Traders also watch liquidity and macro calendar for volatility spikes.
What traders watch
Short-term, traders watch implied volatility and gamma. Options flows can flip quickly into FUD or FOMO. Whales and institutions rebalance portfolios as macro signals shift. For related commentary on institutional demand and staking flows around Ethereum, read Ethereum price cycle: staking, etf inflows and institutional demand.
Bottom line
The Bitcoin and Ethereum price rally looks “halfway” according to options probabilities. If Fed cuts arrive, bullish bets may pay off. If macro surprises appear, expect rapid volatility. Options traders will steer the narrative into year-end.
Frequently asked questions about Bitcoin and Ethereum price rally (faq)
Q1: are options traders the main driver of the rally?
A1: Options add leverage and signal sentiment, but macro drivers like Fed rate cuts are central.
Q2: could volatility wipe out gains?
A2: Yes. Rapid shifts in implied volatility can reverse positions quickly.
Q3: what price targets are traders using?
A3: Probabilities suggest Ethereum over $5,000 and Bitcoin near $125,000 by year-end.
Q4: how can newcomers follow options flow?
A4: Track open interest, put-call skew, and reputable research such as Derive.
Sources to this article
Derive Research (2025) On-chain options data and commentary by Sean Dawson.
